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CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Introduction

• Atmospheric
  Hazards


• Geological Hazards

• Hydrological
  Hazards


• Climate Change

Further reading





Hazard & Risk Science Review 2005
Executive Summary

Pertinent findings and conclusions arising from scientific papers and reports addressed herein are individually highlighted below. The superscripted numbers following individual headlines take the reader directly to the relevant paper(s) in the Sources and Further Reading section.

Atmospheric hazards
  • New forecasting models for August hurricane activity and US landfalling hurricanes7, 55
  • Geological data improve Atlantic hurricane catalogue37, 15
  • New studies shed light on historical storminess in the Atlantic Basin58, 33, 13
  • European cyclone numbers continue to fall38
  • Scheme presented for collating and estimating UK windstorm damage to buildings6

Geological hazards

  • Pacific submarine earthquakes most efficient at generating tsunami off Indonesia, the Philippines and South America24
  • Major tsunami threat identified off the west coast of Japan28
  • Future risk of Caribbean tsunami highlighted23
  • Second great Sumatra quake predicted and seismic risk in the region remains high43, 46
  • Short-term aftershock prediction model developed for California22
  • Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis approach questioned1, 35
  • New earthquake loss estimation model based on building displacement12
  • Loss estimation methodologies developed for the real-estate business49, 50
  • Twentieth century earthquake catalogue for Greece announced9
  • Seismic risk quantified for Istanbul and the Marmara Sea region18
  • 2004 Niigata earthquake triggers thousands of landslides56
  • 260 large North Atlantic submarine landslides logged29
  • Volcanic risk ranking developed for Auckland, New Zealand40, 41

Hydrological hazards

  • Separating out uncertainties shown to improve flood frequency analysis44
  • A generic evaluation of flood damage to buildings34
  • Study reveals precipitation responsible for 2002 Czech floods could have been heavier53

Climate change

  • The 2003 European heat wave is attributed to human activities60
  • Human-induced global warming is penetrating the oceans2
  • Climate change is likely to bring more damaging hurricanes62
  • More intense depressions and more damaging winds are predicted for Europe36
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