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Foreword

Author's Note

Executive Summary

Introduction

• Atmospheric
  Hazards


• Geological Hazards

• Hydrological
  Hazards


• Climate Change

Sources & Further reading





Hazard & Risk Science Review 2006
1. Executive Summary

Pertinent findings and conclusions arising from scientific papers and reports addressed herein are individually highlighted below. The superscripted numbers following individual headlines take the reader directly to the relevant paper(s) in the Sources and Further Reading section.

Atmospheric hazards
  • Significant rise in the number of powerful tropical cyclones in recent decades, in response to rising sea-surface temperatures (SST) 69, 20, 21, 74,75, 30, 65
  • No upward trend recognised in the destructiveness of Atlantic hurricanes striking the US 52,53
  • Analysis used in studies showing a rise in powerful tropical cyclones questioned 38,13
  • Effect of higher SST on Atlantic hurricane intensity is too small to explain recent enhanced activity 41
  • Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past 20 years does not support a rise in frequency, intensity or longevity 37
  • Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) plays minimal role in controlling SST and modulating Atlantic tropical cyclone activity 40,70
  • New scales proposed to replace Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 35
  • Statistics and statisticians can improve aspects of hurricane forecasting and risk assessment 32, 22

Geological hazards

  • 1975 Haicheng (China) earthquake ‘prediction’ is more luck than judgement 73
  • Electromagnetic pulses detected from earthquake offer prediction possibility 71
  • Surface deformation precedes great quake in Alaska and Cascadia 10
  • 2004 Parkfield (California) earthquake provides a wealth of data 5
  • Earthquake threat to southern California highlighted 23, 49
  • Rapid strain detected in New Madrid Seismic Zone (US) 63
  • Seismic hazard for greater Tokyo reassessed 66
  • New national seismic risk and hazard studies for Germany, Italy and Taiwan 61, 56, 33
  • Role of uncertainty in earthquake loss models tackled 17, 9
  • Seismic hazard modelled in earthquake loss models with spatially distributed exposure 18
  • Liquefaction-induced damage incorporated into earthquake loss model 8
  • Probabilistic analysis applied to tsunami hazard 27
  • Tsunami forecasting models for Hawaii and the Japan Sea 77, 16
  • Twenty-three tsunamis recognised in Azores historical catalogue 1
  • Volcano collapse tsunamis characterised at Stromboli (Italy) and Ritter Island (PNG) 67, 68, 62
  • Tsunami threat in Marmara Sea (Turkey) recognised 48
  • Anthropogenic methane threatens submarine landslides and tsunamis 7
  • Asteroid impact tsunami could lead to US$400 billion loss 15
  • New volcanic eruption prediction model unveiled 36
  • Volcanic hazard and loss models constrain threat to Auckland, New Zealand 43, 44
  • Large-scale ash and climate effects of volcanic super-eruptions simulated 4, 34
  • Recent restlessness reported at volcanoes in Tenerife, Iceland and the US 26, 64, 19

Hydrological hazards

  • Flood forecasting revisited 3
  • Uncertainty in flood inundation models tackled 29
  • Coupling meteorological and hydrological models gives mixed results 6, 28
  • Extreme precipitation over European river basins predicted 58
  • Comprehensive flood risk assessment methodology launched 2
  • New European economic risk map for flooding 60
  • Innovative airborne radar system aids flood modelling for insurance purposes 57

Climate change

  • Nature of dangerous climate change highlighted 59
  • Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (ATHC) slows by 30 percent in last 15 years 11
  • Rapid acceleration on melting of Greenland Ice Sheet 55, 39
  • Ice loss from Antarctica exceeds 150 cubic km a year 72
  • Threshold of polar melting triggering many metres of sea-level rise may be crossed well before century’s end 50
  • Extra-tropical storms become more intense and head polewards 78
  • No obvious trend in future European wind speeds 54
  • Higher storm surges predicted for North Sea coasts 76
  • Predicted precipitation extremes for Europe paint a complex picture 24
  • Global runoff in a warmer world is characterised 42
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