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Foreword

Author's Note

Executive Summary

Introduction

• Atmospheric
Hazards

• Geological Hazards

• Hydrological
Hazards

• Climate Change

Sources & Further reading

Hazard & Risk Science Review 2006
7. Sources and Further Reading

1. Andrade, C., Borges, P. and Freitas, M. C. 2006 Historical tsunami in the Azores archipelago (Portugal). Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 156, 172 - 185.

2. Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B. and Blöschl, G. 2006 A probabilistic modelling system for assessing flood risks. Natural Hazards 38, 79 - 100.

3. Arduino, G., Reggiani, P. and Todini, E. 2005 Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences 9, 280 - 284.

4. Baines, P. G. & Sparks, R. S. J. 2005 Dynamics of giant volcanic ash clouds from volcanic super-eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L24806, doi:10.1029/2005GL024597.

5. Bakun, W. H. and many others. 2005 Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Nature 437, 969 - 974.

6. Bartholmes, J. & Todini, E. 2005 Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting. Hydrology & Earth System Science 9, 333 - 346.

7. Best, A. I. and others. 2006 Shallow seabed methane gas could pose coastal hazard. Eos 87, 213 - 217.

8. Bird, J. F., Bommer, J. J., Crowley, H. and Pinho, R. 2006 Modelling liquefaction -induced building damage in earthquake loss estimation. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 26, 15 - 30.

9. Bommer, J. J. & Crowley, H. 2006 The influence of ground-motion variability in earthquake loss modelling. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 4, 231 - 248.

10. Bougeois, J. 2006 A movement in four parts. Nature 440, 430 - 431.

11. Bryden, H. L., Longworth, H. R. and Cunningham, S. A. 2005 Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25º C N. Nature 438, 655-57.

12. Calais, E. and others. 2005 Tectonic strain in plate interiors. Nature 438, E9 -E10.

13. Chan, J. 2006 Comment on: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 311, 1713.

14. Chan, J. and others. 2006 Statement on tropical cyclones and climate change. WMO/CAS Tropical Meteoroloy Research Program. Steering Committee for Project TC-2: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones. http://www.ofcm.gov/tcr/reference/CAS-statement.pdf

15. Chesley, S. R. & Ward, S. N. 2006 A quantitative assessment of the human and economic hazard from an impact-generated tsunami. Natural Hazards 38, 355 - 374.

16. Choi, B. H. and others. 2005 Estimates of tsunami risk zones on the coasts adjacent to the East Japan Sea, based on synthetic catalogues. Natural Hazards 36, 355 - 381.

17. Crowley, H., Bommer, J. J., Pinho, R. and Bird, J. 2005 The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 34, 1653 - 1685.

18. Crowley, H. & Bommer, J. J. 2006 Modelling seismic hazard in earthquake loss models with spatially distributed exposure. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 4, 249 - 273.

19. Dzurisin, D. and others. 2005 Geodetic observations and modeling of magmatic inflation at the Three Sisters volcanic center, central Oregon Cascade Range, USA. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 150, 35 - 54.

20. Emanuel, K. 2005 Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436, 686-688

21. Emanuel, K. 2005 Emanuel replies. Nature 438, E13.

22. Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E. and Risi, C. 2006 A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87, 299 - 314.

23. Fialko, Y. 2006 Interseismic strain accumulation and the earthquake potential on the southern San Andreas fault system. Nature 441, 968 - 971.

24. Frei, C. and others. 2006 Future changes of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research 111, DO6105, doi:10.1029/2005JD005965.

25. Fujiwara, S., Tobita, M. and many others. 2006 Satellite data gives snapshot of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake. Eos 87, 73, 77.

26. Garcia, A. and others. 2006 Monitoring the reawakening of Canary Islands’ Teide volcano. Eos 87, 61, 65.

27. Geist, E. L. & Parsons, T. 2006 Probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards. Natural Hazards 37, 277 - 314.

28. Gouweleeuw, B. T. and others. 2005 Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences 9, 365 - 380.

29. Horritt, M. S. 2006 A methodology for validation of uncertain flood inundation models. Journal of Hydrogeology 326, 153 - 165.

30. Hoyes, C. D., Agudelo, P. A., Webster, P. J. and Curry, J. A. 2006 Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science 312, 94 - 97.

31. Huppert, H. E. & Sparks, R. S. J. (eds) 2006 Extreme Natural Hazards. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A., 364, 1875 - 2265 (20 papers).

32. Iman, R. L., Johnson, M. E., Watson, C. C. Jr. 2006 Statistical aspects of forecasting and planning for hurricanes. The American Statistician 60, 105 - 121.

33. Jean, W-Y and others. 2006 Early estimation of seismic hazard for strong shaking in Taiwan. Natural Hazards 37, 39 - 53.

34. Jones, G. S. and others. 2005 An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption. Climate Dynamics 25, 725 - 738.

35. Kantha, L. 2006 Time to replace the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale? Eos 87, 1, 3.

36. Kilburn, C. & Sammonds, P. 2006 Maximum warning times for imminent volcanic eruptions. Geophysical research Letters 32, L24313, doi:10.1029/2005GL024184.

37. Klotzbach, P. J. 2006 Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986 - 2005). Geophysical Research Letters 33, L10805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025881.

38. Landsea, C. 2005 Hurricane and global warming. Nature 438, E11-12.

39. Luckman, A. et al. 2006 Rapid and synchronous ice-dynamic changes in East Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters 33. doi: 10.1029/2005GL025428.

40. Mann, M. & Emanuel, K. 2006 Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. Eos 87, 233, 238, 241.

41. Michaels, P. J., Knappenberger, P. C. and Davis, R. E. 2006 Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L09708, doi:10.1029/2006GL025757.

42. Milly, P. C. D., Dunne, K. A. and Vecchia, A. V. 2005 Global patterns of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438, 347 - 349.

43. McGill, C. R., Hurst, A. W., Hunter, L. J. and Blong, R. J. 2006 Probabilistic tephra fall simulation for the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 153, 370 - 386.

44. McGill, C. R., Blong, R. and McAneney, J. 2006 VolcaNZ - a volcanic loss model for Auckland, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 149, 329 - 345.

45. McGuire, W. J. 2004 Hazard and Risk Science Review 2004. Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. 38pp.

46. McGuire, W. J. 2006 Dangerous climate change: rising sea levels and ocean circulation changes. Issues in Risk Science 5, 23pp.

47. McGuire, W. J. 2006 Global risk from extreme geophysical events: threat identification and assessment. In: Huppert, H. E. & Sparks, R. S. J. (eds) Extreme Natural Hazards. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A., 364, 1889 - 1909.

48. Minoura, K. and others. 2005 A tsunami generated by a possible submarine landslide: evidence for slope failure triggered by the North Anatolian Fault Natural Hazards 36, 297 - 306.

49. Olsen K. B. and many others 2006 Earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault may cause strong shaking in Los Angeles. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L07305, doi:10.1029/2005GL025472.

50. Overpeck, J.T. and others. 2006 Palaeoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science 311, 1747-1750.

51. Peiris, N., Rossetto, T., Burton, P. and Mahmood, S. 2006 EEFIT Mission: October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake. http://www.istructe.org.uk/eefit/files/EEFIT%20Mission%20Pakistan%20- %20prelim%20report.pdf

52. Pielke, R. Jr. 2005 Are there trends in hurricane destruction? Nature 438, E11.

53. Pielke, R. Jr., Landsea, C., Mayfield, M., Laver, J. and Pasch, R. 2005 Hurricanes and global warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86, 1571-1575.

54. Pryor, S. C., Schoof, J. T. and Barthelmie, R. J. 2006 Winds of change? Projections of near-surface winds under climate change scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L1702, doi:10.1029/2006GL026000.

55. Rignot, E. & Kanagaratnam, P. 2006 Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland ice sheet. Science 311, 986-990.

56. Romeo, R. W. 2005 Earthquake hazard in Italy 2001-2030. Natural Hazards 36, 383 - 405.

57. Sanders, R. and others. National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences 9, 449 - 456.

58. Sattler, K. & Feddersen, H. 2005 Limited-area, short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences 9, 300 - 312.

59. Schellnhuber, H J. and others (eds). 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.392pp.

60. Schmidt -Thome, P. and others. 2006 Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions. Quaternary International 150, 103 - 112.

61. Schwarz, J-R., Raschke, M. and Maiwald, H. 2006 Comparative seismic risk studies for German earthquake regions on the basis of the European Macrosesmic Scale EMS-98. Natural Hazards 38, 259 - 282.

62. Silver, E. and many others. 2005 Island arc debris avalanches and tsunami generation. Eos 86, 485, 489.

63. Smalley, R., Ellis, M. A., Paul, J. and Van Arsdale, R. B. 2005 Space geodetic evidence for rapid strain rates in the New Madrid Seismic Zone of central USA. Nature 435, 1088 - 1090.

64. Sousalu, H. et al. 2005 Seismicity crisis at the Katla volcano, Iceland - signs of a cryptodome? Journal of Volcanology & Geothermal Research 153, 177 - 186.

65. Sriver, R. & Huber, M. 2006 Low frequency variability in globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L11705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026167.

66. Stein, R. S., Toda, S., Parsons, T. and Grunewald, E. 2006 A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo. In: Huppert, H. E. & Sparks, R. S. J. (eds) Extreme Natural Hazards. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A., 364, 1471 - 2962.

67. Tinti, S. and others. 2006 Observations of physical effects from tsunamis of December 30, 2002 at Stromboli volcano, southern Italy. Bulletin of Volcanology 68, 450 - 461.

68. Tinti, S., Pagnoni, G. and Zaniboni, F. 2006 The landslides and tsunamis of the 30th of December 2002 in Stromboli analysed through numerical simulation. Bulletin of Volcanology 68, 462 - 479.

69. Trenberth, K. 2005 Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming. Science 308, 1753-1754.

70. Trenberth, K. & Shea, D. J. 2006 Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L12704 doi:10.1029/2006GL026894.

71. Tsutsui, M. 2005 Identification of earthquake epicentre from measurements of electromagnetic pulses in the Earth. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L20303, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023691.

72. Velicogna, I. & Wahr, J. 2006 Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. Science 311, 1754-58.

73. Wang, K., Chen, Qi-Fu., Sun, Shihong. and Wang, A. 2006 Predicting the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, 757 - 795.

74. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A. and Chang, H-R. 2005 Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309, 1844-1846.

75. Webster, P. J., Curry, J. A. Liu, J. and Holland, G. J. 2006 Response to Comment on: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 311, 1713-1714.

76. Woth, K. 2005 North Sea storm surge statistics based on projections in a warmer climate: how important are the driving GCM and the chosen emission scenario? Geophysical Research Letters 32, L22708, doi:10.1029/2005GL023762.

77. Yamazaki, Y-W. and others 2006 Forecast of tsunamis from the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka source region. Natural Hazards 38, 411 - 435.

78. Yin, J. H. 2005 A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.

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