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CONTENTS

Foreword

Author's Note

Executive Summary

Introduction

• Climate Change

• Atmospheric
  Hazards


• Geological Hazards

• Hydrological
  Hazards


Sources & Further Reading





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Hazard & Risk Science Review 2007
1. Executive Summary

Pertinent findings and conclusions arising from scientific papers and reports addressed herein are individually highlighted below. The superscripted numbers following individual headlines take the reader directly to the relevant paper(s) in the Sources and Further Reading section.

Climate change
  • Stern Review and IPCC 4th Assessment Report present stark warnings of the future impact of climate change on the global economy and society 87, 37 (page 4)
  • Abrupt climate change may have consequences beyond those addressed in the IPCC report 31, 57 (pages 4-5)
  • Greenland and Antarctic ice loss accelerates, threatening more rapidly rising sea levels12, 53, 75 (page 5)
  • Gulf Stream and associated currents have not slowed significantly in recent decades, but this is likely to happen later this century 41, 100 (page 6)
  • Future tropical storm tracks predicted to weaken in the Atlantic and strengthen in eastern Pacific 2 (page 6)
  • Varying hurricane activity on centennial and millennial timescales has implications for future storm frequencies and intensities 18, 60 (pages 6-7)
  • Predicted wind shear increases may cap hurricane formation and development 92 (page 7)
  • Bigger, more severe and faster moving storms forecast for Atlantic mid-latitudes 40, 72, 48 (pages 7-8)
  • European windstorm financial loss potentials forecast to rise significantly by 2100 49, 67 (page 8)
  • Anthropogenic climate change is driving a wetter world, and more rain than predicted is on the way 99, 96 (pages 8-9)
  • 100 year flood and drought events in Europe expected to happen every 10 – 50 years by 2100 50 (page 9)
  • Annual UK flood bill could rise to £13.5 billion by 2100, with the coastal flood contribution rising to 60 – 70 percent 30 (page 9)

Atmospheric hazards

  • Jury still out on climate change as the primary driver of recent enhanced Atlantic hurricane activity 15, 42, 46, 45, 44, 21, 20 (pages 10-11)
  • Doubling in the number of Atlantic tropical cyclones reported since 1855 35 (pages 11-12)
  • ENSO and temperature differentials between the ocean basins mooted as modulating Atlantic hurricane activity 47, 83 (page 12)
  • No damage trend on US coastline recognised as a result of any increased frequency/intensity of Atlantic hurricanes 65 (pages 12-13)
  • Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (rather than sea-surface temperature) most important factor in controlling western north Pacific TC intensity and intensification 93 (page 13)
  • Centennial scale variations detected in tropical cyclones making landfall in Australia 59 (page 13)
  • Clustering of European windstorms recognised 54 (page 14)
  • Trend to stronger January – March storm activity observed in high latitude North Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific 94 (page 14)

Geological hazards

  • Debate over level of seismic hazard at New Madrid continues 10, 86 (page 15)
  • Cascadia earthquake and tsunami risk revisited on basis of new events catalogue, possible precursory warning signs and tsunami inundation studies 58, 80, 14, 76 (pages 15-16)
  • Threat to Los Angeles from Puente Hills Fault earthquake stressed 51 (pages 16-17)
  • Ground motions caused by a future Istanbul earthquake predicted to have a ‘significant’ impact on the city 84 (pages 17-18)
  • No evidence for pre-cursory seismic signals prior to 2004 Parkfield earthquake 62 (page 18)
  • Earthquake chains continue to offer a potentially useful large earthquake prediction tool 79 (page 18)
  • The 2004 Parkfield earthquake puts a dampener on earthquake prediction 73, 32, 38 (pages 18-19)
  • Improved peak acceleration model for North American earthquakes 19 (page 21)
  • Comparison of tsunami models reveals significant variation in predicted run-up heights 24 (page 21)
  • New studies highlight tsunami threat in North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Pacific basins 16, 7, 77, 26, 61, 27, 17, 70 (pages 21-22)
  • Role of collapsing volcanoes as major tsunami sources evaluated 56, 95, 64, 13, 63, 23 (pages 23-24)
  • Eruption threat at Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy) assessed 4, 3 (page 24)
  • Future eruption in Auckland volcanic field could cost up to US$900 million 36 (page 25)

Hydrological hazards

  • Broader-based risk response partnership, involving government, developers, local authorities and others, recommended to tackle UK flood 89 (page 26)
  • Softer approaches, in addition to hard engineering solutions, advocated in the context of future UK flood hazard 97 (pages 26-27)
  • Role of historical hydrology highlighted as a vital tool in evaluating contemporary and future flood risk in Europe 6 (page 27)
  • Increasing flood hazard on the Mississippi river system blamed on aggressive history of channel engineering 66 (page 27)
  • Extreme high water levels and storm surges affecting UK linked to North Atlantic Oscillation 98 (page 27)
  • Medium-term flood risk increasing along UK south coast, but broadly stable in northern France 68 (pages 27-28)
  • Floods shown to follow a power-law frequency – size distribution, in keeping with other hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides 55 (page 28)
  • Role of uncertainty tackled in relation to hydrological models and their utility and in estimating flood levels 90, 29 (page 28)
  • Flood probability maps proposed as a replacement for current ‘single line’ flood boundary hazard maps 82 (pages 28-29)
  • New flood risk mapping methodology combines hydraulic simulation and GIS tool for flood damage assessment 9 (page 29)

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