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CONTENTS

Foreword

Author's Note

Executive Summary

Introduction

• Climate Change

• Atmospheric
  Hazards


• Geological Hazards

• Hydrological
  Hazards


Sources & Further Reading





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Hazard & Risk Science Review 2007
2. Introduction

In any single year, thousands of scientific papers addressing natural hazards, the processes and mechanisms that drive them, and their impacts and ramifications, are published in hundreds of journals and e-journals. Many of these papers contain information that is of direct relevance and considerable importance to the re/insurance market, but which can take several years to filter down from academia to the business world.

The Hazard and Risk Science Review is designed to accelerate this process by drawing attention to new and pertinent research results. We present a summary of key publications from 2006 - 2007 with the aim of introducing the reader to current themes in a number of research domains. The summary text is intended to provide an introduction to the original work and its authors, by setting the science in a broader context and showing, where appropriate, its potential relevance to our business. Inevitably the new research addressed in the 2007 issue is only a tiny sample of the enormous amount of relevant material published over the last 12 months, and we do not claim that it is entirely representative of published research over the period. It does, however, highlight studies identified by Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre (BUHRC) researchers and consultants that are considered to be particularly relevant to the interests of those involved in catastrophe insurance and reinsurance. The success of the review, launched in September 2004 at the Monte Carlo reinsurance rendezvous, is reflected in the 11,000 copies of the first three issues distributed throughout the market. We confidently expect this fourth Hazard and Risk Science Review to achieve an even wider circulation and further augment its function as a valuable resource to the market, through providing a conduit from the arena of academic research to the business world. The Hazard and Risk Science Review is published annually in September, and incorporates research published during the twelve months to the preceding July.

This year’s review continues to adopt the straightforward fourfold structure developed in the launch issue in 2004, centring on atmospheric, geological and hydrological hazards, and on climate change and its hazard implications. Following publication of both the Stern Review on the economics of climate change87, and the IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) latest series of studies37, we lead this year with a summary of climate change research, focusing particularly on the consequences for natural hazards and potential ramifications for the insurance sector. Despite the unsettling quiet on the Atlantic hurricane front, the debate linking tropical cyclone activity and climate change continues to be lively, and its latest instalment forms the core of the Atmospheric Hazards section. As usual, the review concludes with a comprehensive bibliography of sources and further reading, providing a resource for the reader who wishes to pursue follow-up investigations. For ease of use, themes covered within are highlighted at the beginning of each section of the review, with numbered links to the relevant publications in the bibliography.

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