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Deaths Due to Natural Hazards
Table 1 summarises the deaths in natural hazards recorded in the
Risk Frontiers database up to 2003. The central column records the
first reported death; for example there are no known deaths from
earthquakes in Australia in the period 1788 to 1901. Windgust, hailstorm
and lightning deaths have been combined as thunderstorm deaths;
nearly all of the thunderstorm deaths have been produced by lightning
strikes.
Table 1: Summary of deaths in natural hazards in Australia:
1788-2003.
|
Peril |
First recorded Death |
Number of Deaths |
% Total Deaths |
| Earthquake |
1902 |
16 |
0.3 |
| Landslide |
1842 |
95 |
1.6 |
| Bushfire |
1850 |
696 |
11.4 |
| Thunderstorm |
1824 |
774 |
12.7 |
| Tornado |
1861 |
52 |
0.9 |
| Cyclone |
1839 |
2163 |
35.5 |
| Flood |
1790 |
2292 |
37.6 |
| Tsunami |
|
0 |
0.0 |
| |
|
|
|
| Total |
|
6088 |
100.0 |
Tropical cyclones and floods
together account for more than 70% of the known deaths from natural
perils, even after carefully scanning the databases to ensure
there is no double-counting of victims of floods produced by tropical
cyclones. In this database, you can only die once.
At the other end of the spectrum, deaths in earthquakes, landslides
and tsunamis combined account for less than 2% of all deaths.
This paltry total reinforces the view that Australia is a land
of meteorological perils; a low-lying, ancient continent with
all its sea coast remote from the active boundaries of tectonic
plates is unlikely to be dominated by geological hazards.
If we delve into the totals a little further we discover, for
example, that while flood deaths average 10-11 per year, one quarter
of all flood deaths have occurred in just 16 separate floods and
that 49% of the total flood deaths have occurred in New South
Wales. Bushfire deaths have averaged about 4 per year with 50%
of all deaths in just eight fires or, more accurately, on just
eight days of extreme fires. Lightning deaths (that is, most of
the thunderstorm deaths) average about 3.5 fatalities per year,
with nearly half in NSW.
Figure 1: Locations of deaths in natural hazards in Australia.
Figure 1 provides an impression of where natural hazard deaths have
occurred and whether those deaths have been isolated or multiple
deaths. The vast majority of deaths have occurred in the southeast
of the continent. This is not surprising as this was the first area
settled and the area where most of the population currently lives.
Tropical cyclone deaths are scattered around the coast north of
about 26oS; many of these were deaths at sea, particularly in boats
employed in the pearl industry on the northwest coast. The few flood
deaths in the southern part of the Northern Territory are scattered
along the main Alice Springs – Darwin highway. These locations
emphasise that there were probably even more remote deaths not recorded
in the database.
While the spatial view of deaths in Figure 1 and the totals in Table
1 provide broad views of deaths in natural hazards, Figure 2 is
more revealing. While the details of the figure are difficult to
determine, the Y-axis shows death rates, indicating the numbers
of deaths per 100,000 population at the time the death occurred.
Figure 2: Deaths in natural hazards per 100,000 population,
1790-2000.
The most striking aspect of Figure 2 is the dramatic steady decline
– by more than three orders of magnitude – in the death
rate over the last 200 years. While the reasons for this decline
undoubtedly include an improved understanding of the Australian
environment, improved warnings, better emergency services, a better
educated citizenry, changing lifestyles, and improved land use planning
and building codes, it is not yet possible to put these “reasons”
into any order of importance.
Whatever the reasons for this steady decline in the death rate,
any rational view of natural hazards risk assessment needs to take
this changing scene into account. Figure 2 might suggest, for example,
that the long-term view of deaths in Table 1 has limited relevance
to present day risk assessment.
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