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Cover Page

Executive Summary

1.Climate Change: a primer

2.What is dangerous climate change?

3.1.Causes of sea-level rise

3.2.Rates of sea-level rise in history

3.3.Ice sheet melting and catastrophic sea-level rise

3.3a.The Greenland Ice Sheet

3.3b.The West Antarctic Ice Sheet

3.3c.Future prospects for coastal environments

4.Gulf Stream shutdown

5.Conclusions

6.Sources and Further Reading
Issues in Risk Science
Dangerous Climate Change: rising sea-levels and ocean circulation changes - Professor Bill McGuire


6. Sources and Further Reading

Batterby, S. 2006 Deep Trouble. New Scientist. April 15th, 42-46.

Bindschadler, R. 2006 Hitting the ice where it hurts. Science 311, 1720-21.

Bryden, H. L. et al. 2005 Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25º C N. Nature 438, 655-57.

Church, J. A. & White, N. J. 2006 A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters 33. doi: 10.1029/2005GL024826.

Domack, E. et al. 2005 Stability of the Larsen-B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch. Nature 436, 681-85.

Dowdeswell, J. A. 2006 The Greenland Ice Sheet and global sea-level rise. Science 311, 963-4.

Kerr, R. A. 2006 A worrying trend of les ice, higher seas. Science 311, 1698-1701.

Luckman, A. et al. 2006 Rapid and synchronous ice-dynamic changes in East Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters 33. doi: 10.1029/2005GL025428.

McGuire, W. J. 2004 Hazard and Risk Science Review 2004. Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.38pp.

Overpeck, J.T. et al. 2006 Palaeoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science 311, 1747-1750.

Quadfasel, D. 2005 The Atlantic heat conveyor slows. Nature 438, 565-6.

Rignot, E. & Kanagaratnam, P. 2006 Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland ice sheet. Science 311, 986-990.

Schellnhuber, H J. et al (eds). 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.392pp.

Schiermeier, Q. 2006 A sea change. Nature 439, 256-260.

Velicogna, I. & Wakr, J. 2006 Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. Science 311, 1754-58.


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