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Cover Page

Executive Summary

1. Introduction: A land of contrasts

2. Earthquake recording, seismicity and seismotectonics

3. Historical earthquakes

4. Prediction or providence? – Haicheng 7.3 Ms and Tangshen 7.8 Ms

5. Seismic hazard

6. Building types and vulnerability to ground shaking

7. Financial implications and risk

8. Major new construction projects

9. Conclusions

10. Sources and further reading
Issues in Risk Science
Earthquakes and a brave new China - Dr Paul Burton and Steve Cole


8. Major new construction projects
Major construction projects are in progress or planned across China, many of which are taking into consideration natural hazard and risk including seismic effects and associated secondary phenomena. Three examples are:

Qinghai-Tibet railway

The world’s highest railway opened in July 2006 with over 80 percent of its length above 4,000 m. This is the first major transportation connection between east and west China, the latter having the highest seismic hazard and characterised by frequent large tremors. A special earthquake research group was established to identify active fault zones and regions of highest earthquake hazard through which the railroad passes. On the basis of the group’s advice, the railroad avoided the areas of highest seismic hazard, was built using shallow foundations and at right angles to known faults; all measures designed to minimize earthquake damage.

Three Gorges Dam

The largest hydroelectric dam in the world, spanning the Yangtze River, is expected to be fully operational in 2009. A comprehensive seismological assessment was established prior to construction, with the dam expected to withstand magnitudes of up to 7, larger than either the maximum value of 6 expected within this region or possible load-induced earthquakes due to reservoir filling.

2008 Olympic Games, Beijing

The 29th Olympiad will be hosted in China’s capital for two weeks from the 8th August 2008. A study group on earthquake forecasting is expected to “form a program of prevention and countermeasures which will provide the guarantee of earthquake resistance for a successful Olympics.” 130 earthquake monitoring sites around Beijing will be setup by the end of 2006 with an aim to issue real-time earthquake reports.

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