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Cover Page

Executive Summary

1. Introduction: A land of contrasts

2. Earthquake recording, seismicity and seismotectonics

3. Historical earthquakes

4. Prediction or providence? – Haicheng 7.3 Ms and Tangshen 7.8 Ms

5. Seismic hazard

6. Building types and vulnerability to ground shaking

7. Financial implications and risk

8. Major new construction projects

9. Conclusions

10. Sources and further reading
Issues in Risk Science
Earthquakes and a brave new China - Dr Paul Burton and Steve Cole


1. Introduction: A land of contrasts
China, the middle kingdom, has awakened with the vibrancy and power of one of the country’s mythical dragons. No other nation, at the start of the new millennium has seen such an enormous level of mass construction, rapid urbanisation and general modernization, and the sheer speed and scale of social, economic and demographic change in the country have surpassed all expectations. Unquestionably China is a nation in a hurry to catch up with the modern world.

With these changes, however, come some concerns. China is a land of topographic contrasts hosting great mountain ranges, vast deserts and major rivers. The Tibetan plateau is the largest massif on Earth – the so called third pole – with an average height of 4,500 m above sea level (Molnar, 1989). Its presence is the result of a great convergence of land masses fifty million years ago, as India pushed northwards into Eurasia. Today the results of this action dominate the nature of the landscape across China, while the forces resisting India’s northward push build stress and strain that result in devastating earthquakes. It is this threat, and the increased exposure to it, that must urgently be addressed.

Seismic hazard across China has been investigated using various methods but much remains to be done. There is now increased awareness, however, of the need to understand how vulnerable people and property are to future earthquakes. In the light of China’s continuing boom, further progress in the assessment of seismic risk is of paramount importance.

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