Appendix 2: The Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project
These extracts have been reproduced with the kind permission of the Office of Science and Technology
(Extracts from the Foresight web site, www.foresight.gov.uk )

The project will be split into two parts:

•  Flood risk scenarios in the light of climate change (extrapolated to 2100), evolving land use, and socio-economic changes.

•  Techniques that could be used to manage the fluvial and coastal flooding risk

The project is to examine:

•  Severe rainfall events (pluvial flooding

•  River based flooding (fluvial flooding)

•  Sea based flooding (coastal flooding including the effects of sea level rise and storm surges)

•  Interaction of rain, rivers and sea (estuarine flooding)

•  The probability of events occurring at the same time (such as a sustained period of rain followed by a heavy storm) and their impacts

•  Natural variations in the climate as well as atmospheric oscillations (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation/El Nino etc.)

Impacts of flooding will be measured in terms of the following factors:

•  social (including health)

•  economic

•  environment

Critical assets at risk from future flooding will be investigated as a special study focusing on areas such as:

•  coastal assets (e.g. power stations/refineries)

•  inland assets (e.g. transport infrastructure/emergency services)

Extreme Events will be considered, for example:

•  Tsunamis

•  Hurricanes

•  Asteroid, meteor or comet strike

•  North Atlantic ocean circulation changing

Responses to flood risk will be considered in three main areas:

•  Hard engineering and technology (engineering and science - existing and future technology)

•  Soft engineering responses such as environmental schemes to manage flood risk, and how these link to EC Directives to protect, sustain or enhance the natural environment Europe-wide

Geomorphological engineering to repair natural systems to minimise flood risk.

Land use

How this impacts on flooding (e.g. urban and rural drainage) as well as controlling water at source.

Reducing impact/damage

•  Temporary and Demountable flood defences

•  Building solutions such as flood proofing houses, raising roads etc

•  Using the planning system to prevent building in inappropriate areas

•  Insurance and market forces

•  Phased relocation and managed realignment.

Case studies

Small areas throughout UK will be studied to look at flood risk, potential impact and suitable responses.

Other aspects that have been identified as important for the project are:

Communication

•  Who to communicate with (e.g. those at risk, those not at risk)

•  What to communicate, how to communicate it and when (e.g. before or after a flood)

•  Language used by different people (e.g. flood professionals, politicians, etc)

International

There are good (and bad) flood management practices throughout the world. The project will investigate these and see if there are any lessons that could be learnt, and the project may organise or take part in an international forum or discussion group

Skills and research

Skill shortages should be considered by the project and how these can be addressed.

Areas for further research should be identified.

The reports

The main body of work for the project began around September 2002, and was completed in April 2004. The reports are all available on the internet and will not be considered in detail here, but they show that the flood hazard in Britain will increase significantly in the next 100 years. The project reports were announced on the 22nd April 2004 , with dire warnings about the future of flood hazards in the UK (See Alert 13 on the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre website, www.benfieldhrc.org )

Here is an extract from the press release:

"The project found that over the next 100 years, if current levels of expenditure and approaches to flood management remain unchanged:

•  river and coastal flood risk could increase between two and 20 times;

•  risk of flooding from rainfall could increase between three and six times;

•  annual economic damage could increase from £1bn to between £1.5bn and £21bn by the 2080s, depending on the scenario. This compares with growth of GDP of between two and 14 times over the same period; and

•  the number of people at high risk of river and coastal flooding could increase from 1.6 million today, to between 2.3 and 3.6 million by the 2080s."

Maintaining the current level of flood risk could cost between £20bn to £80bn in total over the next 80 years, but a steady i ncrease in investment starting now could make future flood management more affordable - there would need to be an annual increase of between £10m to £30m per year for the next 80 years.

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