Foreword to the Second Edition

A number of developments have taken place since the first edition of this report was published in January 2003. For example, the Foresight reports on flooding have been published, the Marcic court case took an unexpected turn, and the Norwich Union have completed their new flood maps, agreeing to supply some of the data used to create the maps to government agencies. In July 2004, the EU issued a flood “communication” which could become very significant . In Scotland, the planning guideline NPPG 7 was replaced in January 2004, by a new guideline “SPP 7”. In line with the author’s suggestion, the name “Flood Appraisal Groups” was replaced in 2004 by “Flood Liaison and Advice Groups” which more closely describes their current function (and produces a more acceptable acronym). At the time of writing, “FAG”s are being renamed “FLAG”s, and only the new name is used in this report. SPP7 places even more emphasis on the importance of not building in the floodplain, and contains a risk profile which is consistent with the author’s insurance template.

Four new sections have been added, covering flash floods (including Boscastle), landslides (including the Shetland landslide in 2003), rising groundwater, and a general section on participation issues.

In April 2004, a series of reports were issued under the Foresight initiative of the Cabinet Office, showing the extent of the flooding problem under various climate change scenarios. (The author was involved with the preparation of some of these reports.) The research calculated that just to manage the additional flood risks caused by climate change would require an investment of £52,000m if engineering measures were used, or £22,000m if using engineering in concert with a range of non structural measures such as tight planning controls.

On 26th December, 2004, an earthquake resulted in a tsunami which hit the coasts of countries in SE Asia. Over 160,000 people died in this tragic event. As climate change increases sea levels and glacier melt deposits more water in the oceans, shifting the stresses on the sea bed and driving more water into undersea fissures, one wonders if such events may become more likely and damaging in the future. A sobering thought, especially as the unstable Storegga area of the continental shelf in the North Sea is overdue for another slide in geological timescales (possibly hastened by current oil exploration drilling over the site). The last two Storegga slides were around 12,000 and 7,000 years ago, the latest laid down a layer of sand about 300mm thick along the east coast of Scotland up to two km inland. The layers can be clearly seen at Maryton, near Montrose.

An eruption of the La Palma volcano in the Canary Islands is also geologically imminent and could lead to a giant tsunami up to 100 metres high which would inundate the south and west coast of Britain and the east coast of the USA. As yet there are no specific monitoring or warning systems in place for such events.






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