The Flooding Disasters of 1928 and 1953. Are we ready for another?

Storm surges These are caused by the action of wind on the surface of the sea, with barometric pressure a secondary factor. When pressure decreases by one millibar, sea level rises by one centimetre. Thus if barometric pressure drops to 960mb, sea level will rise by about half a metre compared with normal pressure of 1013 mb. The strong winds that create surges also generate large waves. Source: Met Office.

75 years ago, on 6th and 7th Jan uary 1928, London suffered severe flooding, due to the combination of four factors: rapid snow melt, heavy rainfall, a spring tide and a storm surge (see panel above) in the Thames estuary. 14 people died, but worse was to come.

50 years ago, on the 31st of Jan uary and 1st February, 1953 , there was a storm that devastated much of the East Coast of England. The storm, which peaked during the hours of darkness, and continued into the 1st February, killed 304 people in the four counties of Lincolnshire , Norfolk , Suffolk and Essex . A further 177 people were lost at sea.

The surge ended up in the Netherlands , where 1,835 people were drowned.

These are figures only for those who died during the event. It does not include those who subsequently died prematurely due to the experience.

Table 1 The UK death toll from the 1953 storm

Kelman, I, 2002. CURBE Fact Sheet 3: UK Deaths from the 1953 Storm Surge (available from: http://www.arct.cam.ac.uk/curbe/CURBEFactSheet3UK1953Deaths.doc )

The 1953 storm was one of Britain 's worst weather disasters in recent times. The surge generated was the worst on record for the North Sea , and raised the sea level by 2.97m in King's Lynn and 3.36m in the Netherlands. It was caused by gale force winds and a severe depression, which during that fateful night deepened to as low as 968 millibars. The winds and low air pressure "sucked up" the level of the surface of the sea into a giant mound of water, which travelled south along the east coast, driven by gale force winds. By the time it reached King's Lynn , the sea level was 2.5 metres higher than normal high tide, and combined with ferocious winds, a 2 metre high wave suddenly rushed through the town centre. 15 died in King's Lynn itself, and another 65 people died that night on the coast between King's Lynn and Hunstanton. Overall in England , the sea defences were breached in 1,200 places and in some cases the sea reached 2 miles inland. There was widespread devastation, as nearly 1,000 square kilometres of land were flooded, and 32,000 people had to be evacuated from their homes. 24,000 houses, 200 major factories, and 200 miles of railway were flooded. Property damage costs were more than £5 billion at current values.

Table 2 Summary of statistics for the 1953 storm

The storm affected the whole of the East Coast of Britain, from Lerwick in Shetland, where the hourly average windspeed was 75mph, to Deal in Kent . A gust speed of 123 mph was recorded in Orkne , but further south the wind was gale force 10 or 11. In the North of Scotland, thousands of acres of forest were blown down in Deeside. This was partly due to the preceding mild conditions which had started to melt the snow on the tops of the trees. A sudden freeze turned the melting snow into ice, and then further snow piled on top, making the trees top heavy. The same conditions also brought down many overhead power lines, not only in Scotland but all over England . In Canvey Island , 13,000 people were evacuated and 58 people died when the sea walls collapsed. The BP oil refinery on the Isle of Grain was flooded. Fortunately this did not result in a major fire, as so often happens during a serious flood.

Horrific though these figures are, the death toll could have been a lot worse if it were not for the heroic actions of the large number of military personnel, including US and Canadians, still stationed in the area after the war. The availability of wartime military landing craft and amphibious vehicles was also a major factor in rescue work. An American airman, Corporal Reis Leming, saved 27 people from the freezing water, even though he was a non-swimmer. He was the first non-British recipient of the George Medal.

Largely as a result of this storm, the Thames is now one of the best defended estuaries in the world, with the Thames Barrier, 36 additional tidal barriers and gates, as well as 200 miles of flood walls which were upgraded in the 1980s. Canvey Island is well defended and the population there has risen to 37,000. However, many other sea defences in England built, or rebuilt since the 1953 storm are reaching the end of their design life. Research commissioned by the Association of British Insurers in 1997 showed that lack of adequate maintenance meant that 1,232 defence structures could be at risk of failure in the type of storm we can expect on average every 50 years. The findings are from a detailed report on work carried out for the ABI by consulting engineers and the Met Office based on the 1990 Sea Defence Survey. (This report was not published by the ABI, but a copy was given to the Environment Agency).

That, of course, does not mean that the 1953 storm will happen every 50 years, but it will happen again sometime. Are we ready for it?

If the 1953 storm was repeated now, it could result in insured losses of over £20 billion. While the insurance and reinsurance industry does have the capacity to pay such claims, there would be pressure on insurers to subsequently increase premiums for customers in flood hazard areas even further, especially with the recent expiry of the insurance industry's guarantee on availability of flood insurance. The figure is based on two major assumptions:

•  That there is no "fire following flood" hazard. Such a hazard is quite high owing to the bulk storage of oil and propane on the coast, especially in the Thames and Humber estuaries. A 1978 report on Canvey Island for the Health and Safety Executive stated: ".the roofs of the in-ground (gas) storage tanks might collapse if the river were to overtop the sea wall because of an exceptional storm and high tide, causing a substantial release of vapour as the tanks were flooded." It would be interesting to know if this is still the case, and comments from readers are inv ited. Even if it is no longer the case in Canvey, it could apply elsewhere.

•  That London will not be flooded and that existing flood defences will protect London adequately. However this protection will be eroded by relative sea level rise due to climate change and the fact that London is sinking.

A repeat of the 1953 flood could result in the loss of many more lives in England than 50 years ago. This is because of the increased numbers of people living and working in the danger zone and the absence of a large standing army stationed in the area to assist with emergency defence and rescue work. Such a flood could have a disastrous effect on the economy even if London is not directly affected.

Hopefully, however, the improved flood warning systems which have been installed since 1953 should enable people to escape the danger in time, but that will still mean misery for many and a great deal of property damage.

A major concern is the effect on infrastructure, for example power supplies. During the snow storm which took place on the 50 th anniversary of the 1953 flood, tens of thousands of people were without electricity for more than 24 hours, especially in Lincolnshire, which is one of the counties worst hit by the 1953 floods. People are much more dependent on electricity for heating and cooking now than in 1953, and the fragility of power supplies in a relatively mild snow storm must give cause for concern.

Another major concern is fire following flood, especially given the number of oil refineries, chemical works and bulk storage facilities at the mouth of the Thames (and indeed the Humber ). Richard Doyle has written a frightening book on a possible fire following flood catastrophe scenario for London . While fictional, the book has been very well researched, and is well worth reading by all insurers with large exposures near the Thames .

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