Why is Scotland Different?
Figure 7: Uckfield, October 2000. Courtesy of Alan Thompson, Symonds Group Limited




Scotland is very different from England , both geographically and politically. One of the aims of this report is to argue that Scotland is better prepared for flooding, and that the action taken since the floods of 1993 and 1994 in Scotland , and particularly since Devolution in April 1999, makes Scotland a better flood insurance risk than England and Wales . This does not mean that Scotland is immune from flooding; the events of July 2002 demonstrated that. However, this flooding was mainly due to drainage surcharge caused by the unusually high levels of rainfall in Scotland in the first six months of 2002, and especially during June to August.

There are a number of reasons why the position in Scotland is very different from England and Wales . First of all, it has a much smaller population at risk of flood than England . According to research commissioned by the ABI, in England and Wales there are now some 907,000 residential and non-residential properties in the inland floodplain. By 2010, the figure could have increased by 110,000 to 1,017,000. The current figure of 907,000 is already 12 times higher than the corresponding Scottish figure of 74,700 such properties, according to the ABI report. (A later report for the Scottish Executive gives a figure of 71,402 residential properties and 5,789 commercial properties.)

The above figures do not include properties at risk of coastal floods: there are no accurate figures for these in the public domain, only figures for numbers of properties below the 5 metre contour. This is not an accurate measure because:

•  It does not take sea defences into account

•  The five metre contour is itself not very accurate

•  It does not take into account the differences in tidal range around the country

•  It does not take into account differences in storm surge heights around the country

•  It does not take into account the effects of bathymetry

It is clear that coastal flooding could be a major and growing problem in England . The main cause for concern regarding coastal flooding would be a repeat of the 1953 storm. However the storm which devastated the East Coast of England and cost 304 lives on land, did not result in any land based deaths in Scotland , although 17 trawlermen and two lifeboatmen died at sea. This is partly because for storms from the North, the narrowing of the North Sea as the storm moves south causes surges to become more severe. As it is, storm surges in Scotland could be bad enough, with the latest research showing that by 2100, the 100-year return period storm surge could be around 4 metres in the East Coast and 3.6 metres on the West Coast of Scotland. The author is not aware of similar detailed research for England and Wales , but the Met Office chart shown as figure 4 earlier indicates that the worst storm surges will be in the South East of England.

Secondly, the Scottish figure for properties in flood hazard areas is relatively static, not rising rapidly, as in England . Cambridge Econometrics estimate that in Scotland there will be a surplus of 202,000 homes by 2010 due to household growth of only 78,000 in ten years. The Scottish Executive estimate a household growth of 260,000 by 2014, but whichever figure is correct, there is plenty of safe land available in Scotland to accommodate such growth rates without resorting to floodplains. This means that the ratio between Scotland and England of properties in flood hazard areas could rise to 14 or more within the next eight years.

Thirdly, Scotland is taking effective action in a number of areas, as set out below.

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