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Allison, Barry and it will get worse
1995-2001 will be record seven-year period for Atlantic hurricanes CATASTROPHE insurers still reeling from the impact of Tropical Storm Allison now face a multi-million dollar bill from Barry, the latest storm to hit the US. And the hurricane season is still far from over, warn scientists. Things may be about to get worse . . . much worse.Risk Management Solutions, the California-based catastrophe modelling firm, estimates wind-related damage caused by Tropical Storm Barry will result in losses totalling anything from $10m up to $50m. This total, however, is certain to rise once the effects of floods are assessed.
“It is not an extreme rainfall event, but when you have several inches of rain falling in one day there will be claims,” commented principal modeller Michael Drayton. “Flooding is definitely a problem.”
He added that Barry is not in the same league as Allison. But if insurers already reporting depressed earnings as a result of such events, like St Paul and Partner Re, are looking for cheery news it will not be found in predictions for the rest of the year.
Experts from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium have issued renewed projections that forecast the number of storms and hurricanes striking US shores this year will be a costly 20% to 30% higher than the ten year average. They predict four tropical storms in 2001 of which two will be hurricanes, while the Carribbean is expected to suffer two storms, one of which will reach hurricane strength.
The news will be of little comfort to insurers. “Our projections for 2001 point to 1995-2001 becoming the most active seven-year period for Atlantic hurricanes on record,” said Dr Mark Saunders, of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, part of the TSR project. “There can be little doubt the Atlantic has entered a more active hurricane phase.”
Tropical Storm Barry reached windspeeds just short of hurricane strength as it blew its destructive path across Florida, smashing windows and ripping signs off buildings.
State capital Tallahassee has been soaked by more than 35 cm of rain. “We talked about rain being the real threat to this storm,” said Craig Fugate, Florida’s acting emergency management director. “We also said it may occur well away from the centre of the storm. I hate being right.”
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