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Project Runout
Forecasting the collapse and runout of giant, catastrophic landslides Landslides are the most widespread natural hazard on Earth. Each year, within the EU alone, they cost several billion euros in defence and repair. Most of these landslides are slumping masses of soil, too small to be lethal but costly to property, especially when they close a major road or railway line. At the other extreme are the rare collapses of a mountainside, events that can release within seconds the energy of a major volcanic eruption or earthquake. Such collapses are among the most powerful hazards in Nature and can wreak devastation over tens of square kilometres.Catastrophic landslides have volumes of 10 6 m 3 or more (enough to fill at least one international soccer stadium) and, because of their size, they are the most hazardous form of slope collapse. They occur about 2 or 3 times a decade in Europe and, although much rarer than the hundreds to thousands of small hazardous landslips each year, they present a considerable risk to mountain communities and tourist activities. Since they are too large to be prevented by stabilising slopes, evacuation is the the only strategy available for protecting communities at risk. Successful evacuation, in turn, depends on reliable methods for forecasting slope collapse and landslide runout.
Current forecasting methods are empirical and so are prone to large errors. To provide reliable and quantitative forecasts, it is necessary (1) to understand the physical processes controlling collapse and runout, and (2) to use physical models to design simple forecasting methods that can be implemented with confidence during an emergency. Simple forecasting methodologies are proposed here, based on new studies of rock failure, fragmentation and runout.
Click here for the full project report (.pdf 754kb)
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