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Forecasting the Maximum Length of Single Lava Flows on Etna
BHRC Researchers Spot Warning Signs at Mount Etna and Forecast Lengths of Lava Flows
Click on image to see full-size graph (141kb)
Theoretical models give the solid line for the maximum length of a flow (L) being supplied with lava at a rate Q. Etna's flows tend to halt below the theoretical maximum, along the parallel trend given by the dashed line.
The July 2001 lava flow threatening Nicolosi was supplied at a rate of about 10-15 cubic metres per second, for which the lower limit gives potential flow lengths of 5-6 km. The corresponding theoretical maximum lengths (upper limit) are 8-10 km. The probable maximum length of the main flow was thus expected to be 6-8 km, which matches the final flow length of ˜6.5km.
See Kilburn (1996) and Calvari and Pinkerton (1998).
For more information email c.kilburn@ucl.ac.uk
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