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Project Pages
New Definition of Loss Occurrence for a Volcanic Event
Whenever and wherever the next big volcanic loss occurs, there is a strong chance that - as with the continuing Montserrat eruption - it will result in argument and animosity between insurers and reinsurers. This is partly due to unhelpful definitions and partly to the applications of an hours clause that may be suited to quake or windstorm but is far from appropriate to volcanic action.More...
Project VolcAlert - Innovation in Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions
More than five million people live within sight of an active volcano in Europe. Although sophisticated techniques are available for monitoring volcanoes, short-term eruption forecasts are invariably empirical. This approach is plagued by large uncertainties and has only a restricted value when applying observations from one eruption to another. Such a situation creates confusion during a volcanic crisis and heightens the possibility of issuing false alarms. Vulnerable populations may thus lose confidence in decision-making bodies and refuse to respond during later emergencies when an eruption is truly imminent. Project Volcalert has built innovative models for quantifying eruption precursors, and to used these models to develop practical forecasting techniques; and to communicate forecasts effectively to non-specialists.Volcalert uses macroscopic damage fracture mechanics to describe accelerating rates of seismicity and ground deformation before eruptions. Theoretical models are supported by numerical simulations and by fracture-mechanical experiments on rocks to temperatures of 1000°C and pressures equivalent to depths of as much as 3 km. New hazard-awareness profiles are established of vulnerable communities and, together with the modelling results, are used to establish best-practice guidelines for issuing eruption forecasts during emergencies.
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Forecasting Lava Flow Lengths
Pre-cursive signs of the 2001 eruption of Mount Etna have been monitored by BHRC volcanologists for some time. In October 1997, swelling of the ground surface prompted the Centre to contact the Italian civil protection authorities to warn of a possible eruption on the southern flank of the volcano. Further monitoring in 1999 revealed areas of swelling close to the sites of the 2001 eruption. A new model for forecasting the length of lava flow has been used by BHRC Deputy Director, Dr. Chris Kilburn to predict a maximum length of 5-8 km for flows that threatened the volcano's southern flanks during the eruption.The longest flows reached about 6.5 km and stopped about 4 km short of the town of Nicolosi.
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Project Carib
Funded by the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID), it is hoped and expected that the results of Project CARIB will help to reduce the vulnerability of small volcanic islands and their populations to future eruptions. In view of the continuing emergency on Montserrat, the project focused here and on the neighbouring Caribbean islands of St. Vincent and Guadeloupe. The main product of the project is a manual: COMMUNICATION DURING VOLCANIC EMERGENCIES, designed to be used by - and improve communication between - scientists, civil authorities, and the media, at times of volcanic crisis.More...
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